July 11, 2011

What we think will happen won’t

Watching Greece and the News International Saga.  And watching my pension sliding sideways while the clever people who manage my retirement fund bet on an imminent Second Banking Crisis.

And struck by a simple historical thought:

What we think will happen won’t happen, because we’ve thought it already.  So maybe Greece will default.  But maybe, if they do, the world will not end, and shares and bond prices may even rise.   I’m not convinced that a Second Banking Crisis is really round the corner.  Not least because it’s been over advertised.

On News International: all I will say is this – whatever we think is about to happen won’t. 

What has this got to do with brands and business?  Not a great deal.  Other than: research into what consumers think, and what consumers “will do” is dubious at best.  Events are surprising.  People are surprising.   Thank goodness.